来源 ：360点睛实效平台 2019-12-11 20:43:14|马山救世网
On Sept. 14, 2018, Chris Davis, who had been hitless in his last 17 at-bats, got a 2-1 changeup from White Sox pitcher James Shields, and jumped on it. Davis lined the ball through the shift into right field, hustling his way to second for a double.
Since that day, Davis, a 33-year-old slugger for the Baltimore Orioles who once hit 53 home runs in a season, has known nothing but ignominy. He went hitless in his final 21 at-bats of the 2018 season, clinching the worst batting average for a qualified player in major league history (.168).
On Monday, he made another dark entry into the record books: After an 0-for-5 performance in Baltimore’s 12-4 win over Oakland, he reached 49 consecutive at-bats without a hit, breaking the previous record of 46, set by Eugenio Velez across the 2010 and 2011 seasons.
The extraordinary run of futility raises an obvious question: Why are the Orioles still putting Davis out in the field? When reporters asked exactly that before Monday’s game, Manager Brandon Hyde said, “He really wanted to play today.”
In truth, the decision to keep playing Davis almost certainly has more to do with his million salary this year and the million the Orioles owe him beyond 2019 in salary and deferred payments, which will have the team sending him paychecks through the 2037 season. Considering the amount of money the team has committed to Davis, his situation might be less suited for a manager like Hyde than it is for someone like Richard Thaler, the Nobel Prize-winning economist at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.
To Thaler, the Orioles’s refusal to sideline Davis is a classic example of the sunk cost fallacy, an economic principle he detailed in his book “Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics.”
“A classic example is you order some dessert at a restaurant and it costs ,” Thaler said in a phone interview. “You take a couple bites and you realize you were already full and this dessert is really rich, but you feel like you can’t waste the whole thing. So you eat more of it than you should.”
Ideally, Thaler said, the correct decision is to ignore any cost that has already been paid and evaluate the situation strictly on its own merit. One of his favorite illustrations of sunk cost, he said, is deciding whether or not to attend a basketball game you had purchased tickets for even though attending would mean traveling through a blizzard.
“The mistake people make is thinking that somehow using this player, or eating that dessert, or going to the game is getting some of that money back,” he said. “It’s not. It’s just making you feel a little better about a purchase that turned out to be not a very good one.”
If the Orioles are waiting for Davis to pull out of his tailspin, they are ignoring the fact that players are typically at their physical peak at around 27 years old — Davis’s age in 2013 when his 53-homer season inspired his 1 million contract — and then generally see a decline in performance. In Davis’s case, there was an immediate dip in 2014 before a brief resurgence in 2015, but in the three-plus seasons since he has hit .199 over 1,520 at-bats, with an on-base plus slugging percentage of .684 that, adjusted for his home park, is 15 percent worse than league average in that period.
Unlike Velez, or the previous record holders, Bill Bergen (1909) and Dave Campbell (1973) and Craig Counsell (2011) — who each had an 0-for-45 streak — Davis is not staying in the lineup because of his glove. He was rated as a below-average fielder by Sports Info Solutions in each of the previous two seasons, meaning he makes his living almost entirely with his bat. And yet: In his last 56 plate appearances, his total offensive output has consisted of six walks, two R.B.I. and 27 strikeouts.
Davis, who has occasionally been booed in Baltimore this season, received mostly encouragement from the 6,585 fans at Camden Yards on Monday — a number that also set a team record for futility (aside from a game in 2015 to which no fans were admitted). Hyde has also continued to look for a silver lining no matter how cloudy things get.
“He hit three balls on the nose,” he told reporters after Monday’s game, though none of that contact resulted in a hit. “So I’m taking that as a positive moving forward. Hopefully it’s a good start.”
Thaler, channeling the statistician Bill James, correctly guessed that Davis had been worth around minus-3 wins above replacement over the last two years — Baseball Reference had him at minus-2.8 last season and has yet to release any 2019 numbers. That figure compounds the cost of the already-bad deal: Davis and his negative value have been taking up a roster spot and playing time that could be given to a low-cost player from the minor leagues.
Thaler acknowledged that while the concept of the sunk-cost fallacy is an easy one for people to comprehend, many will still convince themselves to ignore reality in the face of a hard decision and push forward despite the cost.
“In the case of sports teams, management may think that — suppose they just cut him — that they’re going to look like idiots,” he said. “Of course, what’s true is playing him makes them look like bigger idiots.”
Thaler said he believed that if he were an owner, he would congratulate a general manager willing to admit a mistake and move along from a bad deal.
Barring that, he said Davis’s example could be used for teams to better understand how to approach large deals in the future. If the team is one that will keep a player on the field no matter what, then that team should avoid long-term deals. But, he said, an owner willing to spend money as well as eat the cost if things go south could be rewarded, as it would offer potential benefits without a later compounding of errors.
Davis did not play in Tuesday’s 13-2 loss to the Athletics. Thaler believes the team’s best bet moving forward is to go one step further than benching him: The team should cut Davis and replace him with a minor leaguer, as even a so-called replacement (or near average) player would represent a significant improvement.
“They could win, let’s say two or three more games this year at a cost of half a million,” he said. “That would be the cheapest two or three wins you could possibly buy. That would be like adding a star.”B:
【本】【来】【海】【神】【唐】【三】【的】【意】【思】【是】【叫】【小】【舞】【在】【找】【到】【唐】【舞】【桐】【后】【就】【立】【马】【把】【她】【带】【回】【神】【界】【去】【的】，【但】【唐】【舞】【桐】【在】【得】【知】【大】【陆】【不】【安】【全】【以】【后】，【死】【活】【不】【肯】【跟】【着】【自】【己】【的】【妈】【妈】【回】【去】，【非】【说】【要】【和】【霍】【雨】【浩】【在】【一】【起】。 【还】【说】【什】【么】【爱】【呀】【爱】【呀】，【死】【也】【要】【死】【在】【一】【起】【的】【话】。 【看】【着】【这】【和】【当】【年】【的】【自】【己】【简】【直】【一】【模】【一】【样】【的】【女】【儿】，【小】【舞】【哪】【里】【能】【忍】【心】【拒】【绝】【她】。 【想】【着】，【虽】【然】【带】【凡】【人】【进】【入】
【这】【日】，**【推】【着】【自】【行】【车】，【从】【校】【门】【处】，【往】【里】【面】【走】。 【迎】【面】【却】【来】【了】【个】【女】【生】，【女】【生】【是】【初】【一】【的】，【以】【前】，【和】**【是】【一】【个】【学】【校】【的】。 【说】【来】【也】【是】【巧】，【他】【们】【两】【个】【的】【名】【字】，【是】【一】【样】【的】，【单】【名】【一】【个】【珊】。 【女】【生】【叫】【秦】【珊】。 【开】【学】【的】【时】【候】，【两】【个】【人】【的】【裤】【子】，【还】【不】【小】【心】【撞】【衫】【了】。 【那】【条】【裤】【子】，【是】**【尾】【数】【不】【多】【的】【一】【条】，【在】【镇】【上】【买】【的】，【黑】【色】【的】
【林】【洛】【和】【林】【言】【被】【留】【在】【卞】【城】【府】【虽】【然】【有】【所】【不】【甘】，【但】【他】【们】【很】【清】【楚】【现】【在】【不】【是】【自】【己】【能】【够】【任】【性】【的】【时】【候】。 “【你】【说】【母】【亲】【这】【一】【次】【需】【要】【多】【久】【才】【能】【回】【来】？” 【从】【他】【们】【记】【事】【以】【来】，【母】【亲】【总】【是】【有】【着】【忙】【不】【完】【的】【事】，【所】【以】【他】【们】【已】【经】【习】【惯】【了】【在】【母】【亲】【出】【门】【在】【外】【的】【日】【子】【里】【自】【己】【排】【解】【寂】【寞】。 【他】【们】【龙】【凤】【胎】【两】【人】【还】【算】【好】，【可】【以】【说】【说】【话】，【日】【子】【过】【得】【也】【便】【更】【快】【一】【些】，
【遣】【去】【黄】【扬】，【钱】【府】【尹】【则】【正】【色】【对】【嵇】【浒】【道】：“【贤】【侄】，【老】【夫】【要】【回】【府】【衙】【了】，【楚】【楚】【尚】【未】【醒】【来】，【待】【会】【你】【务】【必】【留】【下】【用】【过】【晚】【膳】【再】【走】。【老】【夫】【不】【定】【再】【来】，【你】【可】【记】【着】【了】。” 【嵇】【浒】【不】【敢】【违】【逆】，【自】【然】【应】【承】。【不】【过】，【钦】【差】【大】【臣】【突】【兀】【赶】【来】，【话】【说】“【无】【事】【不】【登】【三】【宝】【殿】”【到】【底】【有】【何】【要】【事】【发】【生】【呢】？“【钱】【叔】【叔】，【钦】【差】【大】【臣】【来】【应】【天】【莫】【非】【为】【了】【某】【事】？” 【钱】【府】【尹】【方】【欲】马山救世网【现】【在】，【他】【来】【了】，【她】【相】【信】【一】【件】【事】，【也】【许】【她】【不】【需】【要】【再】【出】【来】，【他】【也】【能】【安】【定】【下】【来】。 【莫】【离】【轻】【轻】【将】【头】【放】【在】【宫】【泽】【夜】【的】【肩】【膀】【上】，【轻】【声】【说】：“【泽】【夜】，【谢】【谢】【您】【信】【任】【我】！” 【在】【宫】【泽】【夜】【家】【里】，【宫】【泽】【夜】【指】【挥】【仆】【人】【将】【温】【文】【燕】【的】【东】【西】【扔】【进】【了】【其】【它】【房】【间】，【让】【宫】【家】【的】【家】【庭】【医】【生】【给】【她】【做】【了】【一】【个】【简】【单】【的】【伤】【口】，【然】【后】【他】【让】【所】【有】【人】【出】【去】，【现】【在】【房】【间】【里】【面】【只】【剩】【下】【温】
【不】【过】【一】【晃】【神】，【又】【觉】【得】【应】【该】【是】【自】【己】【眼】【花】，【甩】【了】【甩】【头】，【林】【思】【柔】【不】【在】【意】【的】【离】【开】【了】。 “【走】【吧】！”【匆】【匆】【换】【好】【一】【身】【外】【出】【的】【门】【派】【服】【饰】，【林】【思】【柔】【也】【有】【一】【段】【时】【间】【未】【在】【门】【派】【转】【悠】，【这】【会】【儿】【倒】【是】【难】【得】【起】【了】【好】【奇】。 【文】【诗】【雅】【惊】【艳】【的】【看】【了】【林】【思】【柔】【一】【眼】，【几】【个】【月】【不】【见】【又】【高】【挑】【了】【不】【少】【的】【林】【思】【柔】【配】【上】【门】【派】【内】【门】【弟】【子】【精】【致】【的】【服】【饰】【更】【加】【仙】【气】【十】【足】，【看】【起】【来】【倒】
“【百】【年】【前】，【我】【认】【识】【了】【夏】【景】【年】【的】【前】【世】，【也】【喜】【欢】【上】【了】【他】，【但】【是】【那】【时】【候】【我】【有】【些】【胆】【怯】，【一】【直】【没】【有】【对】【他】【表】【白】，【直】【到】【他】【老】【去】【我】【也】【没】【有】【表】【白】【出】【来】。” “【后】【来】【我】【决】【定】【投】【胎】，【跟】【随】【夏】【景】【年】【的】【后】【世】，【但】【是】【世】【界】【之】【大】，【我】【不】【知】【道】【他】【在】【哪】【里】……” 【洛】【蔷】【薇】【很】【详】【细】【的】【把】【一】【切】【都】【说】【了】【出】【来】，【说】【完】【最】【后】【一】【个】【字】【的】【时】【候】，【她】【满】【眼】【期】【待】【男】【人】【的】【反】【应】。
【火】【红】【色】【的】【狐】【狸】【没】【命】【的】【逃】【跑】。 【但】【是】【却】【被】【其】【余】【的】【侍】【卫】【所】【拦】【截】【了】【下】【来】。 【前】【路】【不】【通】，【只】【能】【够】【后】【退】。 【可】【后】【边】【却】【是】【齐】【宣】【明】【已】【经】【拉】【开】【的】【弓】【箭】。 【火】【红】【狐】【狸】【呲】【着】【牙】，【一】【点】【点】【的】【后】【退】。 【周】【月】【侧】【脸】【看】【看】。 【身】【旁】【的】【齐】【宣】【明】【眼】【睛】【微】【眯】，【手】【中】【的】【弓】【更】【是】【崩】【的】【极】【紧】。 【周】【月】【似】【是】【无】【意】【的】【挥】【了】【挥】【手】。 【与】【此】【同】【时】【那】【只】【火】【红】【的】【狐】
【昨】【天】【写】【完】【最】【后】【一】【章】，【今】【天】【写】【一】【写】【感】【言】【吧】。 【从】【一】【年】【前】11【月】1【号】，【上】【传】【了】【这】【本】【书】【的】【第】【一】【章】，【将】【将】【一】【年】【的】【时】【间】。 【从】【开】【始】，【这】【本】【书】【就】【算】【是】【我】【自】【从】【写】【书】【以】【来】【最】【好】【的】【成】【绩】。 【完】【结】【之】【时】，【高】【订】9000【多】，【也】【算】【是】【近】【万】【了】。 【感】【谢】【各】【位】【读】【者】【的】【关】【照】，【给】【这】【本】【书】【点】【击】、【推】【荐】、【月】【票】、【打】【赏】【和】【评】【论】。 【种】【种】【情】【绪】【一】【言】【难】【尽】